Some have already mistakenly and prematurily opined that the two regional presidents succumbed to pressure as consequenrky accepted the Dusamareeb 3 accord of 15 articles.Fact: The two regional leaders have only accepted in theory two articles out of 15 in the Dusamareeb 3 accord.
Like many opposition groups, the two regional leaders lobbied hard all along for two strategic issues: (1) that the election take place on time; and (2) that 1P1V is not possible, therefore an alternative model is needed.
These two articles are acceptable to all sides and both Puntland and Jubbaland have worked hard to achieve these two articles, whereas Villa Somalia opposed them all along.The rest of the articles in the accord are on the table for negotiation.
Expect revision to, change, and possibly some omissions from the Dusamareb 3 document.It is, therefore, fiction that the two leaders of PL and JL succumbed to pressures.
It is a fact, though, that they chose their battle carefully at this time – accepted issues that they have been fighting for and may propose to put the contentious issues on the table for a new round of talks.
One hyperbolic issue they expectedly walked away from is the condition of first having a PM seated before any talks. We all knew that this issue was never part of their objectives, but only used it to pressure Farmajo, and it did not yield any of their desired results.
Whether they have reached a tentative agreement with Farmajo on when the PM will be seated is unclear. Neither does it constitute a core issue for them. However, per the 4.5 clan quota system, the PM vacancy is a burning issue for other constituents.
In short, the two main instruments in the Dusamareeb 3 accord already mentioned stand and agreeable to all. Expect the rest of the accord to be subjected to new round of nefotiations at Halane Campus.
Meanwhile, Dusamreeb3 bred mutual mistrust within the regional leaders that are now organized in these two camps: pro-Farmajo and the Deni/Madobe coalition.
I am eagerly waiting for Halane outcome to close this chapter of the unknown 2020/21 elections.