Mar Haday Dusamareeb Dicisoowday, Maxaa Talo ah?
Waxba yaan loo fantasiyeyn war murtiyeedka ka soo baxay madasha Dusamareeb3. Afar marka horeba aan kala fogeyn ayaa qaraar gaadhay. Hadaanay Pl & JL ka mid ahayn Dusamareeb3, Maxaa xiga?
Hordhac
Waxa xusud mudan guulihii laga gaadhay Dusamareeb 1 & 2, oo ugu yaraan darbiyadii u dhaxeeyey dhinacyada siyaasada isku haya la dabciyey. Kulamo wajiya-badan ah ayaa dhex maray Dawlad Goboleedyada iyo Dawlada Dhexe. Waa huru mar arintaasi.
Waxa raja xumo laga soo hooyey Dusamareeb 3 oo la rabay in ay noqoto madasha ugu dambeysa ee lagu soo afjari lahaa is-afgranshawaaga siyaasadeed. Aritaasi waxa meel xun ka tuuray madaxda Galmudug iyo hunguri guracan oo siyaasadeed. (you cannot play peace and reconciliation with politics).
Dusamareeb 3 waxay duwaanka taariikhda u gali doontaa fursad luntay (missed opportunity).
Hadaba maxa la gudboon dhinacyada siyaasada cakiran ee Soomaaliya oy horumoodka kayihiin D/dhexe iyo D/goboleedyada, Xisbiyada madaxa banana, iyo Bahweynta Caalamiga ah)?
Gundhig: Ka soo noqosho Burbur Dawlo
Soomaaliya waa dal dumay (failed state), waxaanay halk hore kaga jirtaa 17ka dal ee lagu sumadeeyo in dawladu ka duntay. Hase ahaatee, mudo dheer ayey ku qaadatay in haykalada dawlada dub loo soo dhiso. Hada waxa si buuxda dhinaca federal iyo heerka Dawlad Gobolba u dhisan haykalo badan oo dawli ah. Weliba saansaantu waxay sheegaysaa in nidaamka demoqraadigu ka dhismi doono Soomaaliya marka la barbar dhigo Itoobiya oo jaar la ah.
Heeerka Soomaaliya maanta marayso waxa la odhan karaa waa dawlad naafo ah (Fragile state) (fiirso Engaging Fragile States: An International Policy Primer, Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, 2009).
Xoojinta afartan astaamood, oo kal ah amiga (security), maamulka dawliga ah (governance), hurumarka dhaqaalaha (economic development), iyo taakulaynta arimaha bulshada (social development) waxay dalka soo burburay ka badbaadiyaan burbur hor leh, ama in lagu fadhiido heer dawlad naafo ah (stagnated fragile state). Joogtaynta afrtan astaamood waxay xoojinayaan kalsoonida ama” legitimacy of the government.”
Tifatir Kooban
Soomaaliya waa dawlad naafo ah isla markaana ka soo kabanaysa burbur doawladeed. Sidaas darteed, waxa had iyo jeer la soo gudboonaan kara ishardi iyo kalamaan ka yimaada madaxda dalka iyo kuwa siyaasada ku hardamaya.
Kalmaankuna innaba kama dhigna kal tag ama burbur hor leh oo ku yimid dalka. In la is hardiyaa ama la-iskhilaafaa waa qayba ka mid ah geedi socodka xalinta khilaafka (conflict resolution) marka horeba keenay burburka. Khilaafkuna wuu soo noqnoqon doonaa.
Waxa daran oo kaliya in uu dalka ragaadiyo.
Khilaafka bulsho ama umadeed sadex jaranjaroyyin ayuu maraa: (1) kooxo kala xoog badan oo is dagaalsan – dagaal iyo kala adkaan ayaa muqata jaranjaradan; (2) Xoogaga awoodoodu isku dhawdahay – wadda hadal ayaa xoogaysta xiliyada (negotiation stage): (3) Nabad iyo dawladnimo waarta oo wax la isku ogyahya sida Axdi Qarameed oo kale (law and order) (fiirso: Conflict Resolution in the Horn of Africaa, ed. Menno Wieb, 1989).
In hadaba waddahadalada madaxda Soomaaliyeed mararka qaarkood hakadaani kama dhigna in uu istaagay geedi socodkii looga baxayay dawlad naafo ah (fragile state). Waa qayb ka mid ah hiigsiga ah in lagaadho jaranjarada ugu dambeysa ee ah joogtaynta nidaam ku dhisan nabad iyo dawladnimo waara (sustainable governance and peace).
Gunaanad
Hadababa, mar hadii Dusamareeb 3 la waayey, waxa haboon in loo xayto sadexdan arimood si hayaanu aanu u hakan:
- In R/Wasaare cusub sida uga dhakhsaha badan loo cayimo (waa qodobka ah governance korna lagu xusay kana mid ah astaamaha lagaga guurayo naafada ama fragile state.
- In madal badasha tan dhicisowday ee Dusamareeb sida ugu dhakhsaha badan loo cayyimo.
- In waji iyo niyad furan (open minded with multiple scenarios) la iskula yimaado.
- In wada hadalada si dadban looga qayb galiyo xisbiyada ilaa hada dibada ka jooga arimahan xaasaasiga ah.
Faysal Rooble