HSM suffered a diplomatic setback from Abiy during talks in Ankara mediated by Turkey

Mogadishu, (IDNE, Editorial) – Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has declared the country’s readiness to engage in military conflict to prevent Ethiopia from recognizing Somaliland as an independent state. HSM called on all Somalis including Al-Shabab militants to prepare for the defense of their homeland, signaling the severity of the situation.

In a strategic countermeasure to Ethiopia’s potential move, Turkey has solidified its alliance with Somalia. In February, Turkey signed a defense and economic cooperation agreement with Somalia, which includes the building, training, and equipping of the Somali navy and the defense of Somalia’s territorial waters.

Sources indicate that Turkey’s actions have served as a deterrent to Ethiopia, which sought to de-escalate the situation in May. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sent former president Mulatu Teshome Wirtu as his special envoy to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara to discuss mediation efforts. Erdogan, in turn, instructed relevant Turkish agencies to study the issue.

Further diplomatic engagement saw Somali President HSM visiting Ankara in June during Eid al-Adha, where he met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Fidan, with Erdogan’s full support, was tasked with facilitating trilateral talks.

A now-deleted post on X from the Somali foreign ministry indicated that the Somali foreign minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi and his delegation had departed for Ankara to participate in talks mediated by Turkey. “The Federal Government of Somalia is committed to its firm principles of protecting its territorial integrity,” the post read.

The Turkish foreign ministry has yet to comment on the ongoing negotiations. According to sources, the primary issue under discussion is finding a mutually acceptable arrangement that could grant Ethiopia access to the sea, a longstanding point of contention between the two nations. One proposal suggests Somalia could offer Ethiopia access to a port close to its borders in exchange for Ethiopia withdrawing from its agreement with Somaliland.

MEPA, a Turkish news outlet, has suggested that Hobyo Port might be a candidate for providing Ethiopia sea access, while ensuring that Somaliland remains unrecognized and the memorandum of understanding between Addis Ababa and Somaliland is terminated.

Sources further indicate that both Abiy and HSM might visit Turkey if the negotiations show promise. However, should the deal collapse due to Ethiopia’s demands, it could potentially undermine Turkey’s regional influence and damage its strong relationship with Ethiopia.

Turkey’s involvement in the region has been significant, notably through the sale of armed drones to Ethiopia in 2021, which were instrumental in Abiy’s efforts to quell the Tigray conflict. Turkey’s relationship with Somalia has evolved since Erdogan’s visit to famine-stricken Mogadishu in 2011, developing into a robust security and commercial partnership. Somalia now hosts Turkey’s largest overseas military base.