Mogadishu, (Idil News) – leader Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia is reported to be directing the country toward a state of martial law, according to political analysts and public officials, following a series of unilateral foreign policy decisions and a significant restructuring of the national military.
Foreign Policy Maneuvers
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has been criticized for bypassing parliamentary oversight in negotiating and signing over 15 memoranda of understanding (MOUs) with neighbors and rival nations including Ethiopia, Egypt, Turkey, China, and the United Arab Emirates.
These agreements cover wide-ranging aspects from security pacts to economic ventures but lack transparency regarding terms, duration and mutual benefits.
- Ethiopia: An agreement for a seaport in Somaliland without formal Somali federal consent has sparked widespread controversy.
- Egypt: A security pact was signed without parliamentary approval added more uncertainties about the integrity of Somalia’s sovereignty.
- UAE: Deals involving free harbors have been concluded yet again without broader governmental or federal state involvement.
- China: Fishing rights agreements have been made β additionally illustrating Mohamud’s unilateral approach to foreign policy.
- Turkey: Business agreements have been signed while continuing the pattern of executive decision-making without legislative oversight.
This centralization of power has effectively diminished the role of the Somali parliament, allowing HSM to appoint or dismiss prime ministers at will, thereby disconnecting the executive from broader governmental checks.
Military and Security
Under HSM’s administration, the once-promising Somali National Army, that once operated under NATO doctrines, has seen significant changes and oppositions argue that the military has been dismantled, with clan affiliations overtaking national unity, leading to a decline in morale and capability. This shift coincides with HSM’s advocacy for a nationwide one-person, one-vote system, an initiative deemed unfeasible due to security concerns and lacking broad support.
Moreover, the HSM’s approach to combating Al-Shabaab has been questioned, with some suggesting that the ongoing conflict serves more to distract from political maneuvers than to address the insurgency effectively.
Regional Dynamics
Ethiopia’s military buildup goal of an army of one million is seen by some as part of broader regional ambitions, including securing port access through Somalia, which could potentially lead to heightened regional tensions. Ethiopia’s presence in Somalia, with troops not officially part of the African Union force, adds complexity to the security landscape. The recent visit of an Ethiopian delegation to Somalia hints at a possible dΓ©tente, but the underlying intentions remain under scrutiny.
Martial Law Implications
International observers predict that HSM’s actions would culminate in the declaration of martial law, set to extend his tenure or manage security under a guise of national emergency.
- Election Uncertainty: The push for one-person, one-vote elections is seen as unattainable within the current security framework.
- Security Assurance: HSM is perceived to lack the capacity to ensure national security within his term’s remaining period.
- Conflict in Jubaland: The attack in Jubaland could be more about political distraction than military victory.
- Foreign Alliances: Deals with Ethiopia and Egypt might be setting the stage for internal conflict or power plays.
Governmental Overreach: The weakening of parliamentary power suggests a consolidation of executive control.
The potential for martial law is seen as a strategy learned from Djibouti’s President Ismail Omar Guelleh, known for similar tactics in governance, including corruption and nepotism.
To summarize
The trajectory of leader HSM’s governance was influenced by unilateral decisions and military restructuring, and more widespread unrest about Somalia’s democratic processes and the stability of its federal system.