ONLF has both military and political opportunities that it can take advantage such:
1. The power of Ethiopia’s central government and its influence has weakened, impacting the unity of the country both the reach of its administration and the security branches
2. Powerful regional governments have emerged such as Egypt in contrast with the weakening Ethiopian administration
3. The dismantling of the regional Army (Liyuu Police).
4. Ethiopia’s interest in the red sea created opportunities for ONLF to find friends in Somalia.
5. The administration of the Somali regional government led by Mustafa has no power over the control of the regions and the local communities .
Growing challenges within Ethiopia:
Tigre region operate outside of Abiy’s administration,
Most of the Amharic region is out of the Addis administration’s control
There are reports that the Amharic, Tigris and Eritrean forces are collaborating a joint forces against Abiya government
Abiy and his administration failed to implement the agreement they reached with the ONLF, instead they tried to divide the Tigre region and leadership.
ONLF should remember no Ethiopian administration will favor their existence thus will remain the enemy of the state
The current situation can benefit ONLF politically and militarily both.
JQ.