As ATMIS Withdrawal Looms, Somalia Faces Potential Crisis: Lessons from Puntland’s Past Victory Over Militants

MOGADISHU, (IDNE, Editorial) — With the planned withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by the end of this year, Somalia faces a critical juncture that many fear could mirror Afghanistan’s recent turmoil. Concerns are mounting that the capital, Mogadishu, could fall to Al-Shabab militants, echoing the fall of Kabul. However, U.S. General Michael Langley suggests that Puntland state of Somalia, could play a pivotal role in safeguarding the nation’s future.

Historically, Puntland has stood out for its resilience and independence. Unlike other Somali states, Puntland does not host ATMIS troops and relies solely on its own security forces. This self-sufficiency is rooted in a significant chapter of Somali history: In 2006, when the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) threatened southern Somalia, then-President of Puntland Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed mobilized the Puntland Armed Forces (PAF), including the Puntland Dervish Force (PDF) and the Puntland Security Force (PSF), under the command of Lt. General Said Mohamed Hersy “Said Dhere.” Their efforts successfully expelled the Al-Qaeda-backed militants from Villa Somalia, restoring relative stability for the first time since the collapse of the Somali central government in 1991.

General Langley, head of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), recently highlighted the precarious situation during a virtual press briefing following his tour of the continent, including Somalia. He acknowledged the likelihood of “opportunistic” attacks by Al-Shabab seeking to exploit the security gaps left by the departing ATMIS forces. Nevertheless, Langley expressed optimism that the Somali Federal Government understands the threat and is prepared to fortify its defenses.

“Amidst the ongoing ATMIS drawdown, Al-Shabab is looking to exploit any resultant security vacuum through attacks,” Langley stated. “The Somali National Army is aware of this and is shoring up their defenses to handle the transition of different bases.” He emphasized that high-impact attacks in Mogadishu and southern Somalia could occur but believed that a united front behind the government could mitigate these threats.

During his recent visit to Somalia, Langley met with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, discussing a comprehensive approach to combating Al-Shabab and ensuring stability post-ATMIS. However, critics argue that Mohamud’s focus might be misplaced. They contend that he perceives Somaliland and Puntland as threats to Mogadishu’s interests rather than concentrating on the more imminent danger posed by Al-Shabab.

Puntland, unique among Somali states, does not rely on international aid. Instead, it sustains itself through local tax revenues, reflecting a degree of financial independence and stability. In the event of Mogadishu falling to Al-Shabab, some experts suggest that the international community should consider Garowe, Puntland’s capital, as a new strategic base due to its relative peace and stability compared to the volatile south-central regions.

As Somalia navigates this critical transition, the lessons from Puntland’s past victories over militant groups could provide a blueprint for national resilience. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Somalia can avoid a relapse into chaos and build a future free from the shadow of militant extremism.