By:-Dahir Mire Jibreel
12/13/2025
Executive Summary
Somalia is entering a highly dangerous phase in its national security trajectory. Al Shabab has consolidated control over most of south central Somalia, leaving federal and state authorities confined largely to a few major towns. Credible intelligence assessments now warn that Mogadishu itself is effectively surrounded by Al Shabab infiltration networks. At the same time, reports indicate that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration—supported diplomatically by Qatar and tolerated by Turkey and the United States—has pursued secretive or indirect negotiations with representatives of Al Shabab.
Historical experience from Afghanistan and Somalia itself demonstrates that negotiating with ideologically rigid terrorist movements under conditions of military imbalance almost always ends in state collapse rather than peace. This paper argues that any secretive accommodation with Al Shabab risks catastrophic consequences for Somalia, the Horn of Africa, and global maritime security.
- Al Shabab’s Grip on South Central Somalia
Despite years of international counter terrorism efforts, Al Shabab has steadily tightened its control across south central Somalia. Outside of Mogadishu and a handful of regional capitals, the group exercises de facto authority through:
- Parallel taxation systems
- Sharia courts and coercive justice
- Intelligence and counter intelligence networks
- Control of supply routes and rural populations
The federal government’s authority beyond major towns remains fragile, symbolic, or contested.
- Mogadishu Under Strategic Encirclement
Recent intelligence warnings—attributed to Turkish security sources and echoed by Western intelligence agencies—indicate that Mogadishu is no longer merely under threat of attacks, but under systematic infiltration. Al Shabab’s presence in surrounding districts, sleeper cells inside the capital, and dominance of nearby rural zones has created a slow motion siege of the city.
This form of encirclement is designed not for immediate takeover, but for political strangulation, economic pressure, and psychological erosion of state authority. - Secretive Engagement with Al Shabab
Reports suggest that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has continued or explored peace negotiations with Al Shabab representatives. These efforts are said to be supported by Qatar and quietly accepted by Turkey and the United States. Such engagement is occurring without transparent parliamentary oversight or national consensus.
Negotiations conducted in secrecy and from a position of weakness historically empower insurgent groups rather than moderate them. - The Afghanistan Precedent
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 stands as a stark warning. Negotiations between the United States, the Western backed Afghan government, and the Taliban resulted in:
- Collapse of Afghan security forces
- Disintegration of state institutions
- Taliban control of the entire country within days
The collapse occurred not because Afghanistan lacked manpower, but because negotiations destroyed political legitimacy and morale.
Somalia today shows troubling similarities.
- Somalia’s Own Historical Warning
Somalia has already experienced this scenario. In 2006, the Islamic Courts Union—publicly led by a moderate figure, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed—was militarily commanded by radical leaders such as Aden Hashi Ayrow and foreign jihadist fighters with Afghan experience.
Within months, ICU forces:
- Controlled territory from Galkayo to the Kenyan border
- Deployed nearly 900 technical vehicles
- Mobilized over 15,000 armed fighters
The Transitional Federal Government was reduced to Baidoa alone. Somalia avoided total collapse only due to Ethiopian intervention backed by U.S. intelligence, funding, and air support.
- Strategic Consequences of Negotiating with Al Shabab
Any accommodation with Al Shabab would trigger:
- Large scale internal conflict between south central Somalia and other regions
- Fragmentation of the Somali state
- Influx of foreign jihadist groups, including remnants of Daesh recently expelled from Puntland
Most critically, it would link Somali and Yemeni terrorist networks, creating a direct threat to Bab al Mandab and the Red Sea—one of the world’s most vital maritime corridors.
This would transform Somalia from a national security crisis into a global one.
Conclusion
Secretive negotiations with Al Shabab represent a grave strategic error. History shows that terrorist movements use negotiations to gain legitimacy, regroup militarily, and undermine state authority. Somalia stands at a crossroads: repeat the mistakes of Afghanistan and its own past—or confront reality with unity, transparency, and strategic clarity.
Appeasement will not bring peace. It will bring collapse.
Policy Warnings
- No negotiations without decisive military leverage
- Full transparency with Parliament and federal member states
- Zero legitimization of terrorist governance
- Regional coordination to protect Red Sea and Bab al Mandab security