Djibouti is showing signs of a deepening political crisis as President Ismail Omar Guelleh considers “amending the constitution to pursue a sixth term.” This move has exposed “growing internal divisions among the ruling elite over his potential successor,”, this op-ed argues, signaling instability within one of the #Horn_of_Africa’s most tightly controlled political systems.
Rising tensions and conflict among Djibouti’s political and tribal elites “could undermine the governance system and weaken state institutions,” posing serious risks not only to domestic stability but also to the interests of influential regional and international powers with a foothold in the country.
Given the current dynamics, “three possible trajectories for Djibouti’s ruling system can be anticipated:” a constitutional amendment allowing Guelleh to remain president for a sixth term; a controlled and negotiated transfer of power; or elections that result in an alternative candidate from the dominant al-Issa clan assuming office.
“The coming months will be crucial in determining the future of the Djiboutian state.” The ruling regime must carefully assess its options and demonstrate its capacity to manage both “domestic and external pressures for reform and democratic transition.”
Read more: addisstandard.com/?p=53540